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Economic Impact of Brexit & Covid-19 on UK and Europe

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Chapter 1: The Economic Toll of Covid-19 on the UK and Europe Europe

Covid-19 has impacted negatively on the United Kingdom as well as Europe, and the crisis is far from over. Because COVID-19-related deaths are tracked differently in different nations, comparing their results is difficult. The pandemic's influence by the side of various nationalities has altered over history; for instance, certain countries that performed better than most in the early part of the epidemic have since seen an increased risk of mortality. Despite being substantially nearer wherein the illness generally arose, such UK fared significantly worse in terms of COVID-19 fatalities in 2020 than most other countries, particularly those in East Asia (Angioloni et al. 2022). It is being studied whether the United Kingdom has been hit more than others due to the magnitude of the first loss. It is highlighted a quantity of basic difficulties which have had a substantial impact by the side of the UK reaction towards COVID-19 as well as should be a primary focus for the administration as this seeks to benefit from the pandemic across several areas. The main concentration of this research, along with the data gathered, has been on the pandemic's effect as well as response in the United Kingdom; nevertheless, this has been examined in other countries of Europe when relevant. The introduction chapter consist of research aim and research objectives, research rationale, significance of the research as well as research structure. The research aim and objectives is one of the vital element of every research. By looking at those points one can get enough idea about the whole research. There is another section can be seen which is research questions.

1.2 Background of the study

The Covid-19 epidemic seems to have had a significant impact on several places in the United Kingdom as well as Europe. Different governments have adopted different ways on the way to tackle the epidemic. The purpose of this research is to examine the costs along with benefits of Covid-19 mitigation measures in several areas inside the United Kingdom. This portion provides a brief summary of the Covid-19 as well as the current status of things in a number of UK states (Bailey et al. 2022). Then it has been discussed the three primary preventive approaches, that comprise government-led "non-pharmaceutical interventions" (NPIs), immunizations, and other measures. After that, it has been discussed the NPI design disagreement. It has been also assessed such techniques using a cost-benefit analysis since this is unclear if the advantage of NPIs is worth the potential cost.

In the second part, it has been undertaken a literature review, following by a vulnerability assessment of current cost-benefit assessments of NPIs, notably lock-downs. The third section starts with an illustration to the cost-benefit analysis approach (Portes, J. 2020). Then it has been focused upon selecting GDP losses as well as school closure-related expenses as the key expenses, net fatalities preserved through NPIs & fatalities through other factors as the principal advantages, as well as turning the economic budgets within financial worth to compare those. Inside the fourth section, it has been looked at the unequal distribution of the repercussions among sectors, including the undefinable expenses across areas like as healthcare, schooling, community, as well as the ecology. The conclusions of the research have been reported in the final section.

As a consequence of Covid-19, a large quantity of individuals have perished. There has been around 2.85 million Covid-19 fatalities globally as of April 4, 2021, including approximately 128 thousand fatalities inside the United Kingdom. However, NPIs have incurred severe financial as well as cultural consequences (Belhatem et al. 2021). For instance, School closures is the cause of reducing the productivity of the economy within the country. Moreover, children who have internet connectivity will be less impacted from closing schools than students with lower households who do not have accessibility to technology, that might accentuate the divide among affluent as well as poor children. In addition to the impoverished families, "stay at home" orders severely limit normal folk's societal engagement, perhaps leading to a rise in mental illness levels. There seem to be extra charges in other fields in additional to such expenses. Healthcare, economics, culture, as well as the ecology, are one of them.

1.3 Research Rationale

The main purpose of this research is to analysis the economic impact of UK as well as Europe in the time of the Brexit & Covid-19. In the direction of finding out such economic impact of Brexit & Europe it has been used some classification as well as visualization methods. For performing such classification as well as visualization methods it is used the Python codes and for running those codes it is used the google colab platform (Besard et al. 2022). It has been overlooked the economic data inside the country and based on that it has been performed the analysis. This will help researchers in future studies about the topic. With the help of this economic analysis it can be easily compared the ecological conditions of the country before and after the Covid-19 as well as Brexit.

1.4 Research Aim

This dissertation aims to explore the economic trends of the population during COVID until now, in different cities in the UK and Europe.

1.5 Research Objectives

To achieve this, the dissertation will focus on the following objectives:

  • To explore pre, and present COVID trends and the economic performances surrounding it in the UK and Europe
  • Based on the findings, to analyze predictions of how COVID can further affect operations, workforce, and households economically.
  • To use different algorithms using Python for measuring the exact economic impact.
  • To implement logistic regression, confusion matrix, and tree-based method inside CRISP-DM.

1.6 Research Questions

  • Q1: What economic conditions have been found during the Brexit as well as the coronavirus outbreak in the UK and Europe?
  • Q2: Are there any risks related to Brexit & Covid-19 that might be found in the near future?
  • Q3: Which types of codes should be used here for measuring the exact economic impact?
  • Q4: What are the algorithms needed to implement for discussing the economic impact?

1.7 Structure of the Research

1.8 Research Significance

COVID-19 seems to have a massive global effect, as well as the global healthcare threat. This has been the most severe observed inside a viral illness since the "1918 H1N1 influenza" epidemic. It has been reported epidemiologic research results which have affected authorities inside the United Kingdom & elsewhere. In the prior case, it has been also assessed the potential role of a variety of therapies in the lack of a COVID-19 immunization. “Non-pharmaceutical interventions" (NPIs) have been global health programs aimed at reducing the usage of medications as well as rising population interaction levels to decrease viral infection (Bhattacharjee et al. 2020). The United Kingdom has been devastated by Covid-19, as well as the epidemic has been far from done. Since COVID-19-related fatalities have been documented differently in various countries, comparing their outcomes is challenging. The effect of the epidemic upon various nationalities has changed over time; for instance, many nations that performed better than others within the initial months of the epidemic have since experienced an enhancement in mortality.

Although it is significantly closer to where the disease first emerged, the UK scored significantly worse in regards of Covid-19 fatalities in 2020 than most other nations, notably those who are in East Asia. It is investigated why the United Kingdom has been struck tougher than others because of the size of such an initial loss (Petrie et al. 2020). However, the vaccination project's effectiveness as one of the most successful throughout Europe as well as, for a nation its scale, among the most successful inside the world illustrates that it should take both positive as well as negative aspects through the reaction to the epidemic. Since future epidemics have potential, every lesson should take place as soon as possible, that's why it has been sharing this study now. The objective is not to apportion responsibility, but to guarantee that previous victories and failures are accurately assessed so that vital improvements could be made for the future.

This analysis consisted of the following important components of the COVID-19 reaction, which have been discussed in detail throughout the first part of this study: The usage of non-pharmaceutical initiatives on the way to regulate the disease outbreak, like border controls, significant discrepancies, as well as lockdowns; the usage of exam, detect, as well as separate techniques; the effect of the disease outbreak by the side of elderly welfare; the effect of the disease outbreak on particular groups; as well as the acquisition & roll-out of covid-19 vaccines. It has outlined several basic challenges that have had a substantial influence on the UK approach towards COVID-19 as well as must be a primary focus for the administration as this attempts on the way to learn through the pandemic throughout various categories (BOTELHO, A. 2021). The emphasis of this research as well as the data it has been acquired on the pandemic's impact as well as reaction in the United Kingdom, however, has been discussed features through other regions of Europe where appropriate.

1.9 Conclusion

The purpose of this research is to glance at the prices as well as benefits of Covid-19 mitigating strategies inside various parts of the United Kingdom. This chapter concludes with a rapid synopsis of COVID-19 as well as the existing situation in several UK states. Following that, the NPI design debate was explored. Such strategies have also been evaluated using a cost-benefit analysis, as this has been unknown if the advantages of NPIs has been valuing such possible expense. In the second section, a literature analysis was conducted, tracked via a vulnerability evaluation of current price estimates of the NPIs, generally the lock-downs (Pelle et al. 2021). The next portion initiates with the example of the “cost-benefit analysis technique”. The emphasis has thus been upon choosing GDP harms as well as university closure-related outlays as the key incidentals, average fatalities preserved by NPIs & fatalities through additional variables as the primary benefits, as well as transforming such economic budgets within financial worth for comparing those. The subsequent portion looked at the unequal distribution of the consequences across sectors, including the intangible costs across areas such as healthcare, education, community, and the environment. The study findings have been given in the concluding section.

Chapter 2: Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

The primary goal of this research is to examine the economic impact of Brexit and Covid-19 on the United Kingdom and Europe. Some categorization and visualization approaches have been developed to determine the economic impact of Brexit and Europe. Python scripts are utilized to conduct such classification and visualization approaches, and the Google colab platform is used to run such codes. It neglected the economic statistics within the country as well as conducted the study based on it. This will aid researchers in future studies on the subject. The ecological circumstances of the country before and after the Covid-19, as well as Brexit, may be simply compared with the aid of this economic study. This literature review chapter consists of conceptual framework, empirical study, theories and models as well as literature gaps. In the conceptual framework section it has been found the concepts of the dependable variable as well as the concept of the independent variables (Brakman et al. 2021). Then empirical study section will help others on the way to know about the various perspective of different researchers. It is very much helpful for conducting a research. This is beneficial on the way to compare different researcher’s point of view and this provides the depth of the current study. Then in the theories and model section it has been represented one theory as well as one model related to the topic. This supports the literature review chapter and helps the researchers to perform the research perfectly. At last there is one literature gap section by which one can get the idea of the gaps during performing the research. This gaps also shows the drawbacks of the literature review. This is helpful for future studies because after knowing the particular limitation future researchers can work on it and will improve such weaker sections very easily. In addition to this one conclusion has been added at the end of this chapter which illustrates the overall working in this chapter.

2.2 Conceptual Framework

2.3 Concept of Dependable and Independent Variables

Dependable Variables
The withdrawal of the "United Kingdom through the EU" (Brexit) has effectively put into question the idea of integrating inside the procedure of globalization, wherein "global economic interactions" have grown in importance. Such innovations would certainly have a substantial impact on the future of global commerce. Slowing global ecological development, worsening income as well as wealth supply, rising debts rates, diminishing efficiency, as well as the danger of such COVID-19 pandemic in terms of global transaction volume have all been often discussed issues (Brooks et al. 2021). Supply restrictions, interruptions within supply chains, as well as challenges inside the logistics sector, particularly in the time of the COVID-19 outbreak, have been often seen as heralding the start of significant shifts in global commerce. In addition to this Brexit occurred under such difficult circumstances. This would have ramifications for nearly every country. Brexit has been expected to have an impact not just on EU existing citizens, but also on nations outside the EU.
Independent Variables
  • Inflation

During the Covid-19 as well as Brexit conditions the inflation rate inside the UK as well as the EU has increased a lot. The Covid-19 epidemic has had a considerable influence on the inflation rates. This type of inflation has been discovered in numerous sectors. The goods were not readily available in this pandemic condition (Bruneckiene et al. 2020). As a result, the demand for those items was constantly expanding. However, the quantity of such items has also diminished. This is the reason why the prices of the items have risen. Throughout the Brexit and Corona outbreak situations, the majority of people in the UK and the EU were unable to afford such items. Such economic conditions were established as a result of Brexit and Covid-19.

  • Labor

Personnel and labor supply decisions will be difficult in a variety of businesses, including those that looked untouched by Brexit. Hotel, tourism, transportation, and related services are examples of applications. Economic development in such businesses has been significantly reduced as a result of lockdown tactics, travel limitations, and medical difficulties. They are unlikely to be as damaged by Brexit, but they rely on lower-skilled workers as well as multinational labor, sometimes with international speaking abilities (Caliendo, G. 2022). Finding such personnel has already become more difficult as a consequence of COVID-19, and it will become considerably more difficult as a result of Brexit. In other news, companies in highly regulated industries aim to shift personnel through the UK to the EU as the endpoint of 2020 initiatives, in order to fulfil the higher standards the following year. However, because of the COVID-19 restrictions, there is no guarantee that people will be allowed to travel alongside the UK and the EU.

  • Demand / Supply

The Covid-19 outbreak has a significant impact on the product demand as well as their supply. Such demand has been found in several sections (Pearce et al. 2022). In this pandemic situation the products were not easily available. For this reason, the demand of those products was continuously increasing. On the other hand the supply of those products also decreased. This is cause of increasing the price of the products. Most of the people inside the UK as well as the EU could not afford those products during the Brexit as well as the corona outbreak situation. Such economic conditions has been created during the Brexit and Covid-19.

2.4 Empirical Study

According to E Han 2018, an unprecedented global emergency is the COVID-19 pandemic. To curb the spread of the coronavirus 2 that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and keep health systems from being overloaded, many nations have put restrictions on population movement; some have even enforced complete or partial lockdowns (Mortimer-Lee, P. 2022). However, in the event that a COVID-19 vaccination or therapy does not exist, lockdowns and other severe restrictions cannot be maintained over the long term. As lockdowns and restrictions are loosened, governments around the world must simultaneously strike a balance between diverse health, social, and economic concerns.

This phase of the Brexit following study would begin. The subsequent elements would be considered inside the analysis. Firstly, there is the immediate effect of Brexit, with the UK-EU Buying as well as selling along with "Cooperation Agreement" (TCA) indicating whatever has altered for the UK as well as the EU (Morris, G. 2022). Secondly, a financial study among 2017 to 2021, which would demonstrate the UK's financial outlook utilizing Germany as a comparison, with the use of certain graphics to assist inside the characterization. Finally, a socio-political study would be conducted, that would examine the outcomes of prior elections. The political commentary would also incorporate the voting outcomes of other European Union member states, such as Germany.

From the related study of Portes (2022), Immigration had been crucial to Brexit ideology, but that was overlooked inside the pre-referendum debate of its own financial ramifications (Portes, J. 2022). Indeed, during the plebiscite, the UK's decision was frequently structured as a trade-off among the financial consequences of growing trade internal conflicts among the UK as well as the EU on one contrary, along with the economic advantages of deciding to end unlimited immigration as well as trying to restore 'authority' over immigration on another (Calzada et al. 2022). It has changed since the referendum. Immigration has turned out to be a far less prominent political topic, as well as social sentiments toward immigrants have improved. Therefore, its financial importance has grown, first as migratory flows through the EU declined drastically, & afterwards, in the last year, when the Covid-19 outbreak resulted during very substantial net outflows. Immigration was critical to Brexit philosophy, but it was disregarded during the pre-referendum debate over its financial implications. This study examines immigration patterns since the referendum, reviewing the prior calculations as well as looking at how things changed during the epidemic (RYDER et al. 2020). This then examines the post-Brexit immigration rules, which will be implemented in January 2021, assesses current assessments of the anticipated economic repercussions, examines employment market trends throughout the post-pandemic rebound & even beyond, as well as explores a few of the political ramifications.

Although there is a considerable amount of research upon that economic effects of Brexit, majority analyses concentrates upon trade-related effects as well as either overlook immigration altogether or make broad assumptions. Nevertheless, a quantity of studies have attempted on the way to anticipate forecasts of future migration patterns as well as estimate the financial effects of post-Brexit modifications. The UK government's examination of the consequences of potential Brexit options assumed zero net immigration through the EEA (Moretta et al. 2022). The consequence has been predicted to be a 1.9% decrease in GDP during fifteen years as well as a 0.7% decrease in per capita GDP. According to "Cabinet Office forecasts", the number of EU workers inside the UK would be decreased by 350,000 to 550,000 by 2026, resulting in a 0.56 to 0.86 percent decrease in GDP and a 0.13 to 0.24 percent decrease in "GDP per capita". Both predictions assumed that "non-EU migration" will stay steady. It would be the first research to take into account increases from "non-EU immigration" (Sampson et al. 2022). They predicted a 650,000 decline overall recruitment over the next 10 years, partially balanced via a 56,000 increase in "non-EU immigration", with the latter to be more trained and higher rewarded. The net outcome was a 0.55 to 1.86 percent drop in GDP and a 0.52 to 1.92 percent drop in "GDP per capita".

According to the author Lyon and Dhingra (2021), this report describes current patterns inside a variety of corporate operations, along with their forecasts for the next months, using real-time evidence supplied via the "Confederation of British Industry" (CBI). The amount of economic activity increased significantly in April 2021 compared to the previous 3 months. For the very initial moment since the outbreak, considerably larger firms registered an enhancement inside the business revenue than a reduction. Covid-19 has caused devastation on the environment. Numerous companies feel that Covid-19 has lowered overall market volume through roughly 20 percent of the overall. Additionally, the UK would leave the "European Union" on January 1, 2021. As a consequence, hurdles to commerce, business, as well as personnel mobility among the UK as well as the EU have risen (MJ et al. 2022). According to Brexit, various analyses predicted the probable financial consequences of Brexit, with the good portion predicting a serious long-term consequence. The outlook for another three months has also brightened. Throughout the epidemic, real income rates have declined. According to estimates, real salary growth fell via 2 percentage points during January 2021 compared to the prior year, but price appreciation stayed reasonably flat. The sustained rise in prices is partially explained through rising average input prices. In April 2021, 25percentage point’s greater business owners record rising material prices than companies record lower expenses. In January 2020, the gap was 7%.

23 percent of businesses say Brexit has reduced their sales towards the EU. 33 percent indicate a decrease in EU imports. Local companies have been hit worse. 59 percent of businesses, comprising those inside the services industry, have reported at least one Brexit-related difficulty. The most common difficulties are border-related, with 38 % of enterprises reporting delays, 34% citing increased immigration as well as administrative fees, & 23% providing information regulation checks (Mircheva, R.D. 2020). Brexit has influenced the expenses or pricing of 33% of businesses. 20 percent of the total of firms experience frictions, such as higher trade restrictions when transferring commodities through the United Kingdom to Northern Ireland. The subsequent times would be crucial for safeguarding such strategy that promotes a continuous reappearance towards exertion, permitting business output in the direction of resuming as envisioned. “Covid-19 as well as Brexit” have resulted in huge fundamental shifts in the economy; measures to assist people in transitioning between professions, sectors, as well as companies would be critical for capturing development in profitable ventures as well as enterprises (SaxunovA et al. 2022). Measures for reducing the price of new restrictions, along with cross-border barriers caused by Brexit, will be crucial for UK enterprises seeking to stay competitive inside the marketplace.

Covid-19 has caused devastation on the environment. Several groups believe that Covid-19 has reduced total transaction volume by around 22 percent on general. Additionally, the United Kingdom would quit the "European Union" on January 1, 2021. As a result, barriers to trade, business, and people movement have grown between the UK and the EU. Prior to Brexit, several evaluations forecast the potential political consequences of Brexit, with the overwhelming majority expecting a significant lengthy effect. Since this will take years on the way to completely know the economic implications of Brexit, following section evaluates corporate study responses through April 2021 to establish whether and how Brexit has affected businesses (MIRCHEVA, R. 2020). Commercial overall sales amongst the "United Kingdom as well as the European Union" declined sharply in January 2021 compared to the previous year, with just a slight comeback in Feb (Stewart et al. 2020). Exports of goods along with services have been 37 percent lesser in January 2021, whereas shipments towards the EU have been 18 percent lesser. Commerce between non-EU nations has been much lesser, with exports decreasing via 8.5% as well as purchases dropping at 7.5%. Economic ties have suffered greatly of Covid-19 limitations, as well as some of the decline might be attributed to stockpiling in preparation for Brexit.

2.5 Theories & Models

Supply and Demand Theory

The "law of supply and demand" seems to be a theory which describes the relationship among suppliers as well as purchasers of a commodity. The idea describes the link among the cost of a specific commodity or product as well as individual's desire on the way to purchase or sell it. Individuals have been often inclined to provide more as well as demand less whenever prices rise & vice versa as prices are falling. The idea has been founded on two distinct "rules," the "principle of supply" as well as the "principle of demand". These regulations work together in the direction of establishing the real marketplace pricing as well as volume of products available (Milner et al. 2021). One of the major fundamental economic rules, the "principle of supply & demand", is intertwined with practically every economic concepts in certain way. In practise, the competitive equilibrium cost has been determined by individual's tendency on the way to provide & demand a thing, or the cost at which the amount of the item which individual have been ready to provide matches the amount which consumers prefer.

At the scale of single jobs as well as sectors, it has been presented quantitative forecasts of "first-order supply and demand" disruptions for the US market linked with the COVID-19 epidemic. In the direction of investigating the supply shock, it is categorized sectors as vital or non-essential & create a “Distant Workers Rating” that assesses the capacity of various vocations to work remotely. Consumption waves have been centered on a "Congressional Budget research" of the anticipated impact of a widespread corona outbreak. In comparison to the pre-COVID era, such shock could endanger about 20percent of total of the UK economic growth GDP, endanger 24 percent of the overall of employment, as well as lower total pay earnings approximately 17%. At the operational level, industries like transportation seem to be more likely to be production by market volatility, whereas production, mines, as well as communications have been more likely to be output-constrained through inflationary pressures. Huge "supply and demand" disruptions are affecting the amusement, restaurant as well as tourist industries (Chadha, J.S. 2021). It has been shown that high-wage jobs are largely resistant to unfavorable "supply- and demand-side shocks", but low-wage professions have been far more sensitive. It should underline that these findings represent simply first-order disturbances, and therefore anticipate that spillover effects inside the supply chain would significantly amplify them.

The Future Migration Model

Against such backdrop, the UK has been implementing a new "post-Brexit immigration system". The proposed regime has been formed by two major influences. Firstly, the Government’s pledge to halt freedom of travel as well as implement a "Australian-style points system" that'd regard EU as well as non-EU migrants equally (Svirniuk, M. 2021). Several officials argued that this will be plainly inside the UK's financial interests on the way to preserve most or each of the advantages of membership with in Internal Marketplace after Brexit, either through continued membership inside the "European Economic Area" or through a sequence of international treaties. Rather, the EU emphasized maintaining mobility had been an essential component of participation inside the Internal Market (Meunier et al. 2020). As a consequence, the Labor Mobility rules of the "UK-EU Trade" as well as "Cooperation Agreement" have been quite restricted. Nevertheless, substantial developments in public perception as well as government policy regarding immigration along with refugees occurred at the similar period. According to studies, respondents have become less worried regarding migration while also turning out to be greater optimistic regarding its effects. The current program's policy objective is thus less about decreasing immigration as well as more about creating this more diversified along with discriminating than the old divided approach. It demonstrates that "non-EU migrants" who join for work reasons must satisfy a "low income threshold work" within jobs which are usually better educated than the UK average, but "EU8 as well as EU2 migrants" have been far more inclined to work within limited sectors.

2.6 Literature Gap

The literature gap is one of the important segment of every literature review. With the help of this sections people can understand the weaker portion of the research. In this research it has been tried to find out the economic impact in the time of the Brexit as well as Corona virus outbreak inside the UK as well as EU (Sweeney et al. 2020). For this purpose it has been used the primary research techniques. In the direction of conducting such primary research it is mainly selected the Python code for getting the optimum result from the analysis of the research. Throughout the time of working on the research it has been found some limitations of this research. This is very much time consuming as well as very expensive (Colfer, B. 2020). Due to these drawbacks researchers faced with lots of difficulties during the research work. In addition to this in the empirical study section also have been identified some gaps. Actually this is the main concerning things nowadays. That is why there also has been found several comparisons related to this. Every experts have their special opinion regarding the economic impact of the Brexit as well as Covid-19. Sometimes few of the perspective is absolutely correct as well as sometimes it is totally different so this has turned out to be extremely difficult for the researchers on the choose the right one for the existing research.

2.7 Conclusion

The need for a "national lockdown" has weakened the "UK economy" during first parts of 2021. Meanwhile, the outlook for the next three months appear to be more promising, with investments and profit rates likely to grow. The vaccine spread and schedule for lowering constraints appear to be having an effect, with the customer built environment presumably expecting an improvement in productivity. This part of the literature review includes a conceptual framework, empirical research, theories and models, and literature gaps (McCann et al. 2021). The notions of the reliable variable and the independent variables may be found in the conceptual framework section. The empirical study part will then assist others in learning about the diverse perspectives of various scholars. It is really useful for performing research. This is useful for comparing different researchers' points of view and providing the depth of the present investigation. Then, under the theories and models section, one theory and one model connected to the issue were represented. This complements the literature review chapter and assists the researchers in carrying out the investigation flawlessly. Finally, there is a literature gap section where one may obtain an understanding of the gaps encountered when conducting the research. This gap also demonstrates the limitations of the literature review. This is useful for future studies since understanding the specific constraint allows future researchers to work on it and enhance such weaker areas fairly simply.

Chapter 3: Methodology

3.1 Introduction

The primary goal of this research is to examine the economic impact of Brexit and Covid-19 on the United Kingdom and Europe. Covid-19 has had a detrimental influence on both the United Kingdom and Europe, as well as the problem is far from ended. It is difficult to compare findings since Covid-19-related fatalities are monitored differently in various countries. The pandemic's impact on various nations has changed over time; for example, several countries that did better than others in the early stages of the epidemic have since witnessed an increase in mortality risk. Despite being far closer to the source of the sickness, the United Kingdom scored significantly worse in terms of COVID-19 deaths in 2020 than most other nations, notably those in East Asia. Some categorization and visualization approaches have been developed to determine the economic impact of Brexit and Europe (Martín García, A. 2021). Python scripts are utilized to conduct such classification and visualization approaches, and the Google Colab platform is used to run such codes. It represented the economic statistics within the country and conducted the study based on it. This will aid researchers in future studies on the subject. The ecological circumstances of the country before and after COVID-19, as well as Brexit, may be simply compared with the aid of this economic study.

3.2 Method Outline

This research methodology section has been further divided into subsections. These methodologies are also obvious in the research onion diagram (Dayan et al. 2020). These subsections are Research philosophy, research methodology, appropriate design for the research, methodologies employed, certain particular strategies, data gathering methods, and data analysis procedures. Finally, a Gantt chart presenting the timeline of the investigation as well as the specific time required for each phase has been included.

3.3 Research Onion

3.4 Research Philosophy


The "positivist research philosophy" seems better suited for addressing the financial effect of the Coronavirus epidemic as well as Brexit inside the UK and EU. Within such a "research philosophy", there has been a thinking process at work. It supports the scientists in effectively completing this study. This is one of the major pertinent research concepts that would aid in the investigation (Maqsood et al. 2022). The foundations for adopting as well as utilizing such a special approach contain several aspects that would aid in offering value flexibility while also showing trends over time. It seems to be beneficial in terms of data presentation as well as reliability. That is the reason behind "positivist research perspective" appears to be more adapted to dealing with the financial consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic as well as Brexit inside the UK and EU. There has been a thought process at work inside such a "research philosophy."

3.5 Research Approach


This is among the most important aspects of almost every investigation. To complete most of the research goals, the research technique adopted here seems to be inductive. There have been several advantages to employing such kind of study. This type of study technique has been always helpful in predicting the precise future outcome. It assists the scientists in successfully conducting their investigation. This is one of the most important relevant research notions that will help with the inquiry. The foundations for adopting and implementing such a unique method include several factors that would help in providing value flexibility while also displaying patterns over time. It appears to be advantageous in terms of data display as well as dependability.

3.6 Research Design


The study design is explorative. This study focuses on the economic effect of the UK and EU during Brexit and Covid-19, as well as mitigating strategies. As a result, extensive research must be carried out. The research design would aid in the proper construction of the study. Every study may be simply completed step by step if a suitable research strategy is followed (MACKUL’AKOVÁ et al. 2021). This study design was chosen for a variety of reasons. As per the findings, the exploratory design is most suited for such an investigation. It almost always allows people to comprehend better, as well as the study design gives various opportunities on the way to discover new things.

3.7 Research Method

Qualitative & Quantitative

The research has been performed to analyze the economic impact of UK as well as Europe in the time of the Brexit & Covid-19. In the direction of finding out such economic effects of Brexit & Europe, it has been used some classification as well as visualization methods. For performing such classification as well as visualization methods it is used Python codes and for running those codes it is used the google collab platform (Leonida et al. 2022). So, the whole analysis is based on the quality of the software work. The quality is the main factor here. For all of these reasons the research is qualitative (Tetlow et al. 2020). This kind of qualitative research could provide insights in the research. This permits to put creativity in the research. This qualitative research also incorporates the experience of an individual. On the other hand, the quantitative research method has been also used in the study. This is one of the prominent approaches which is used in this research on the way to acquire the numeric data. This numeric data has been differentiated in the direction of offering empirical statements. This quantitative method represents a superior level of representativeness. The overall research has been conducted by using both quantitative as well as qualitative research methods to represent the overall picture. [Refer to Appendix 1]

3.8 Research Strategy


The primary goal of this research is to look into the economic impact of Brexit and Covid-19 on the United Kingdom and Europe. Certain categorization and visualization algorithms have been developed to evaluate the economic impact of Brexit and Europe. These categorization and visualization techniques are accomplished out utilizing Python scripts and the Google colab platform. It has been overlooked the economic data inside the country and based on that it has been performed the analysis (De Lyon et al. 2020). So, it is clear that lots of action has been taken during the research work. So, this is one kind of Action-oriented research. The main concern of this research is the economic impact. So, this is worked on the economic condition related problems inside the UK as well as EU. Not only this, one theory also has been developed in the research. For this, several data have been gathered through different journals based on the current scenario of UK and EU during the time of Brexit. The data has become very much helpful on the way to perform the analysis via solving the problems. It has been taken several actions by the side of auspicious prospects.

3.9 Data Collection Method


It has acquired significant material on economic impacts of UK & EU during the Brexit as well as corona virus outbreak from secondary publications as well as various web portals to properly perform this research (Turcatti et al. 2022). Excellent research has been carried out throughout this manner. Secondary data collection uses previously acquired data, that requires minimal moment of time than the "primary data collection" as well as therefore has been significantly greater probable as well as lawful since it was received through an expert researcher or examiner (Kova? et al. 2022). Anyone with a basic understanding of technology may access secondary data. During the research it has been obtained the Covid-19 related datasets through the UK government websites. It has been used the judgmental sampling because it is best suitable for the research requirements. The link of the data sources is attached below. Via utilizing the data set, it has been used the methods of machine learning on the way to get the classifiers as well as the predictions. All data has been collected from google trends.

3.10 Data Analysis Technique


The data analysis technique which is used here in the research is primary. There have been several reasons behind selecting such research techniques. Throughout the primary research, people can get optimum result. The accuracy rate of primary research is always high. It is a time-consuming as well as little expensive method but it is selected here for this research just because it is very much dependable and this is best suitable for this research on the way to find the exact economic impact of the UK as well as the EU in the time of the Brexit as well as Covid-19 situation (De Lyon et al. 2021). In the direction of conducting such research, it must have special knowledge about the software used. In this research it is used the Python code and for running those codes it is utilized google colab platform. With the help of the software work it has been tried to get the desire results. The classification method as well as the some visualization methods have been used while performing the software work. In the primary research it has been used a thematic approach on the way analyze the data taken through open source data. The thematic analysis is mainly represented via the visualizations of the Google Colab platform. As a theme, different types of Python codes have been used for classification as well as prediction. It is a one type of continuation process. With the help of the analysis, it increases the reliability as well as credibility.

3.11 Research Timeline

3.12 Conclusion

The major purpose of this study is to investigate the economic effects of Brexit and Covid-19 on the United Kingdom and Europe. It is currently being investigated if the United Kingdom has suffered more than others as a result of the severity of the initial loss (Uzunoglu et al. 2021). It highlights several fundamental issues that have had a significant influence on the UK response to COVID-19 and should be a main focus for the government as it aims to profit from the epidemic across multiple sectors. The primary focus of this research, as well as the data acquired, has been on the pandemic's impact and reaction in the United Kingdom; however, this has been investigated in other European nations when applicable (Kohnert, D. 2021). To estimate the economic impact of Brexit and Europe, certain classification and visualization tools have been created. Such classification and visualization procedures are carried out using Python scripts, and the Google Colab platform is used to run such routines. It reflected the country's economic statistics and performed the analysis based on them. This will help scholars with future studies on the subject. With the use of this economic analysis, the country's ecological situation before and after Covid-19, as well as Brexit, may be easily contrasted. In this research, there is one section named time horizon by which people can get a clear idea about the timetables required for every task to be completed. The diagram of the Gantt chart also has been found in the above section.

Chapter 4: Data Analysis

4.1 Introduction

The primary goal of this research is to look into the economic impact of Brexit and Covid-19 on the United Kingdom as well as Europe. Certain categorization and visualization algorithms have been developed to evaluate the economic impact of Brexit and Europe. These categorization and visualization techniques are accomplished out utilizing Python scripts as well as the Google Colab framework. It showed the country's economic facts and analyzed on a basis. This will aid researchers' future research on the issue (Kohnert, D. 2020). The nation's ecological position before as well as after Covid-19 & Brexit might well be easily compared using this financial study. In this chapter of data analysis, it will be discussed the software work that has been done via using Python code. That code will be elaborated into the finding as well as analysis subsection. Furthermore, few limitations of the research would be described in this portion. At the end there is a conclusion chapter where it will be concluded the research methods as well as the analysis.

4.2 Finding & Analysis

Data summary

Here it is selected last five years economic data of UK during Covid-19 as well as Brexit. The parameters are GDP, production, CPI and retail. Here in the analysis the main focus is GDP.

Data preparation

This is one of the essential step of every data analysis. In this stage it is prepared the data by importing the dataset into the google colab as well as several initial commands for running the program.

Data modelling

Here it has been used the CRISP-DM model for analyzing the economic impact of the UK during the Covid-19 as well as Brexit. Inside the CRISP-DM method logistic regression, decision tree, confusion matrix have been used to generate the output systematically.

Data Evolution

This is the final step of the data analysis. In this section it is discussed how the data is evaluated. The accuracy of the data set shows the actual data evolution of the dataset.

By utilizing the data preparation it can be created the probable visualizations for the dataset. This can be created via utilizing a simple code. In this diagram it has been seen various functions which is imported for getting the results of the visualizations (Dhingra et al. 2022). The pandas function will help to create various graphical illustrations, correlations as well as missing plots. In addition to this there are numpy, seaborn etc. function which also have their separate activities. Then it has been imported the CSV file via utilizing the read command.

This section represents the data of the top from the dataset. Via using the data.head command the value has been got.

With this data info command the full information of the dataset has been obtained (van Schalkwyk et al. 2020). Some of the data have integer value as well as rest of the data have float value.

The data description has been visible in the above snips. In this data description it has been found the count value of the Covid-19 factors (Victor et al. 2021). Except this the mean value, the standard value, the minimum value as well as the maximum value has been also identified from the diagram.

This code has been used on the way to find the mean value of the data. After that one command is used in the direction of plotting a diagram.

This is the diagram of heat map which has been drawn by using the special python code. The above output has been got in the google colab platform. This is one of the greatest visualization method which is generally used by most of the experts. There are several advantages of using the heat map. That is why it has been selected here in the research in the direction of finding the exact economic impact during the Brexit as well as corona pandemic inside the UK as well as the EU (Dobbs et al. 2021). This type of graphical illustration provide a brief of the key deliverables of the existing data set. It also shows the visual approach which is very much helpful on the way to understand the numeric value of the dataset. Heat map create this simpler to learn through users on the way to create better objectives. Looking at the heat map one can easily understand the insights of the dataset. [Refer to Appendix 2]

This is the diagram of a swarm plot which has been created by the Python code (Wincott, D, 2021). This swarm plot graph represents the data points as well as this assists the researchers on the way to understand the supply in a superior manner.

This is the codes of train as well as test datasets.

The potential visualizations for the dataset may be built using data preparation. A simple code may be used to create this. Various functions are shown in this diagram that are imported to obtain the results of the visualizations. The pandas function will aid in the creation of different graphical displays, correlations, and missing plots. In addition, there are functions such as numpy, seaborn, and others that have their own activities. The CSV file was then imported by using the read command.

The above diagram shows the output of the ending values of the datasets. This has been obtained via using the data tail command. This is helpful on the way to know the results of the current datasets.

This confusion matrix has been used in the research for perfectly predicting the optimum results of the economic impacts during the Brexit as well as corona pandemic situation within the UK & EU (Fetzer et al. 2020). This confusion matrix has given the info regarding the faults which is occurred during the classifier. This also reflects the scenario of confusions throughout the predictions of the economic impact.

The above graphical representation is a type of decision tree that shows the results of COVID-19 scenarios (Hudson, R. 2022). With the help of this graph it can be easily known the economic impacts inside the UK as well as the EU. In this crisis, the economy of the UK as well as the UK has become worse and to recovery such a situation it might take long periods. This graph gives an indication of the symmetry as well as the skewness of the using dataset. [Refer to Appendix 3]

4.3 Discussion

It has been discovered that the UK and EU economies have become weaker as a result of Brexit and the Coronavirus epidemic. Its impact can be seen in every part of the country. The corona pandemic, as well as the Brexit crisis, have had an impact on the transportation system, GDP, CPI, and output, among other things. Several outcomes have been noticed as a result of the categorization. Looking further into the data, it is possible to infer that the dangers associated with Brexit and COVID-19 are quite low and can be eliminated in a very easy manner. Before Covid-19 the UK economy was good but the Brexit referendum decreased the national income of UK via 0.5%. Brexit is one of the essential causes of UK inflation but in the time of the pandemic, the UK economy became extremely vulnerable. Python programs were used in this study to calculate the actual economic effect of the UK and EU under the Covid-19 and Brexit scenarios. The Python code is useful in developing the classification model. CRISP-DM is the primary approach employed in this study. When executing the CRISP-DM approach, logistic regression, confusion matrix, and decision tree model are employed. The economic impact of the UK during the Corona outbreak as well as Brexit may be simply studied using the CRISP-DM approach. It has been predicted that the economy after the COVID-19 situation will be normal as before.

4.4 Limitation

Every research has certain limitations. People can grasp the weaker parts of the research with the aid of this section. This study attempted to determine the economic impact of Brexit as well as the Coronavirus epidemic inside the UK and the EU. Primary research methodologies were employed for this objective. The Python code was primarily used for doing such primary research to obtain the best results from the study analysis. Some limits of this research have been discovered along the course of its development (Howell, E. 2021). This takes a significant amount of time and money. Researchers encountered several problems throughout their study effort as a result of these disadvantages. In addition, significant shortcomings have been noted in the empirical study part. This is the most pressing issue these days (Freeman et al. 2022). As a result, there have been various similarities discovered. Every analyst has a unique perspective on the economic implications of Brexit as well as Covid-19. Sometimes a few perspectives are completely true, while other times they are completely incorrect, making it incredibly difficult for researchers to determine the best one for the current investigation.

4.5 Conclusion

The research has been conducted on the way to investigate the economic effects of Brexit and Covid-19 on the United Kingdom and Europe. To assess the economic impact of Brexit and Europe, several classification and visualization algorithms have been built. These classification and visualization procedures are carried out with the help of Python scripts and the Google Colab framework (Heald et al. 2020). It displayed the country's economic information and did the analysis based on them. This will help researchers do further study on the subject. This financial research may simply evaluate the country's ecological situation before and after Covid-19 and Brexit. This data analysis chapter has been based on the analysis of the software work that has been completed using Python code. These codes have been expanded in the finding and analysis sections. Furthermore, a few research constraints have been discussed in the limitation section.

Chapter 5: Conclusion

5.1 Introduction

The entire research work is all about the economic condition analysis of the UK as well as EU in the time of the Brexit along with Covid-19 situation. The research seeks to examine the effect as well as consequences of Britain's "Brexit" through the European Union. This provides as well as examines the primary points advanced by both pro as well as anti-Brexit advocates during an attempt for understanding the financial consequences of Brexit upon the United Kingdom. As a result, the study considers the financial liberalization market volume, GDP, emigration, taxes, as well as international commerce with non-EU members to define the advantages & disadvantages of Brexit (Hantrais, L., 2020). As a consequence, Brexit led to a brand-new trade deal between the United Kingdom as well as the European Union, retaining their tariff-free position; but, new rules could operate as limitations on emigration as well as free movement, potentially affecting the labour force in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the United Kingdom is no longer a part of the EU's currency union or common market. Meanwhile, it has been established a trading relationship which provides for zero taxes as well as zero quotas for products exchanged which adhere to the necessary rules of origin. In this research such economic impact of those countries have been measured by classification method as well as some visualization methods. In this chapter it will be recommended some strategies for improving the economic impacts inside the UK as well as the EU. Then it will be shown some future directions which will help the future researchers to understand the current situation and work accordingly (Hamza et al. 2022). Throughout the context it has been overviewed the Covid-19 trends and economic impacts in several sectors. In the literature review section it is discussed the supply and demand theory as well as future migration model. In addition to this empirical study section has been presented which is very much helpful for the people to know the exact economic impact of UK as well as EU via different expert’s point of view. Then in the methodology section it has been used the primary research methods and in the data analysis section it has been analyzed the software outputs which is got from the Google colab.

5.2 Recommendation

In the direction of expanding the economic growth after the Brexit as well as Covid-19 situation UK and EU must take some vital steps for that. It has been recommended to promote their financial expansion via introducing some innovation. They have to implement new immigration strategies. Brexit resulted inside a brand-new trade agreement between the United Kingdom as well as the European Union, keeping their tariff-free position; nevertheless, new laws may act as restrictions on emigration and free movement, possibly hurting the labor force in the United Kingdom. Moreover, the United Kingdom has left the EU's currency union and single market. Meanwhile, a commercial agreement has been developed that provides for zero taxes and zero quotas for items transferred that correspond to the relevant norms of origin (Hadfield et al. 2021). The economic effect of those nations was quantified in this study using a classification approach as well as several visualization tools. From the software analysis it should find the gaps and after that fulfill those gaps with the needed items. Try to give opportunities to the people who are unemployed now. They can cut the prices of the health care. It should remove the unwanted as well as unclear laws from the economy. In the direction of quantifying some probable costs through the tariffs it should take some vital procedures. They can create a map for the distribution system of the supply chain as well as demand. They must have to review several contracts as well as connections with the users along with the suppliers.

5.3 Future Work

Some prospects for the upcoming months have improved. In contrast to last year's patterns, fewer firms predict both trade revenues as well as personnel on the way to expand in the upcoming months than anticipate those to drop. Household as well as professional care businesses, on the other hand, remain negative about sales volume inside the coming months. The majority of the wage increase recorded inside the UK is attributable to changes in job mix, with lesser income people most likely to have become unemployment in the time of the epidemic. Previous study has found that such reductions have been very uneven, with nearly six out of ten 15-25-year-olds experiencing a drop in wages (Haba, K. 2021). Businesses predict actual salaries to rise by 1.8 percent on average over the next year, although this is still significantly underneath the pre-pandemic rate. This is where people might anticipate to discover the advantages of the massive "Job Retention Scheme" (JRS) as well as a slew of company assistance measures, that intended on the way to preserve the country's economic framework so that business output could rebound once limitations were eased. However, the "Office for Budget Responsibility" (OBR) forecasts that unemployment would remain greater than pre-pandemic levels till 2024. As a result, rolling down JRS gradually may be required on the way to provide the business time to recover.

5.4 Linking with Research Questions

Q1: What economic conditions have been found during the Brexit as well as corona virus outbreak in UK and Europe?

During the Brexit as well as corona virus outbreak it has been found the economy became weaker in the UK as well as EU. In every portion of the country it is observed its impact. The transportation system, GDP, CPI as well as production etc. have been affected via the corona epidemic as well as Brexit situation.

Q2: Is there any risks related Brexit & Covid-19 which might be found in near future?

After doing the classification it has been observed several results. Looking deep into the results it can be concluded that the risks related Brexit and Covid-19 in near future is very minimum and it can be removed in a very simple manner.

Q3: Which types of codes should be used here for measuring the exact economic impact?

In this research it has been used python codes for measuring the exact economic impact of UK as well as EU during the Covid-19 as well as Brexit situation. The python code is very much helpful on the way to build the classification model.

Q4: What are the algorithms needed to implement for discussing the economic impact?

The main method which is used here in the research is CRISP-DM. In the time of performing the CRISP-DM method it is used logistic regression, confusion matrix as well as decision tree model. With the help of the CRISP-DM method it is easily analyzed the economic impact of the UK during the Corona epidemic as well as Brexit.

5.5 Conclusion

The whole study project concentrates on the financial condition analysis of the UK and EU during the Brexit period, as well as the Covid-19 scenario. The study aims to investigate the impact and repercussions of Britain's "Brexit" from the European Union. Personnel as well as labour supply choices will be challenging inside several industries, even ones that appeared to be unaffected by Brexit. Applications include hotel, tourist, transportation, as well as associated services. Economic growth in such industries has dropped dramatically as a result of lockdown tactics, travel bans, as well as medical issues. They really aren't likely to be as affected by Brexit, but they rely upon lower-skilled employees as well as international labour, frequently with international verbal skills. Finding such people has already gotten more difficult as a result of COVID-19, as well as this would turn out to be even more difficult as a result of Brexit (Fukuda, K. 2021). In other news, firms in strictly regulated sectors plan to relocate employees through the UK to the EU as the endpoint of 2020 strategies, in order to meet the higher specifications in the following year. However, due to the COVID-19 limits, there has been no certainty that persons would be able on the way to migrate alongside the UK as well as EU. Some solutions for increasing economic benefits inside the UK and the EU will be proposed in this chapter. Then, some future directions will be highlighted, which will assist future scholars in understanding the existing situation and working accordingly. The Covid-19 developments and economic consequences in several industries have been discussed across the period. The supply and demand theory, as well as the future migration model, are examined in the literature review section. In addition to this empirical research part, a section on the economic impact of the UK and the EU from the perspectives of several experts has been offered. Then, in the methodology part, primary research techniques were applied, and in the data analysis section, the software outputs obtained from the Google colab were evaluated.



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